MEDIA ADVISORY
Friends of the Earth International
13 October, 2006
ECONOMISTS WARN CLIMATE CHANGE WILL COST
TRILLIONS IF GOVERNMENTS FAIL TO ACT
LONDON (UK) / WASHINGTON DC (USA), 13
October 2006 -- The cost of allowing global
temperatures to increase by two degrees or
more above pre-industrial levels will run
into trillions of Dollars while the
environmental and social costs will be
incalculable, a survey of over one hundred
recent economic and scientific papers on
climate change revealed today.
The report, Climate Change – the Costs of
Inaction, was compiled by leading economists
at the Global Development and Environment
Institute at Tufts University in the U.S. for
Friends of the Earth’s climate campaign.
[1]
The survey, which brings together the very
latest scientific and economic thinking on
climate change, highlights the enormous costs
that would result if Governments fail to act
to keep temperatures below two degrees.
It is estimated that annual economic
damages could reach USD 20 trillion by 2100,
equivalent to 6 - 8 percent of global
economic output at that time [2]. However
even this figure is likely to be an under
estimate as it does not include the cost of
biodiversity loss or of unpredictable events
such as extreme weather or collapse of Gulf
Stream. The true costs of climate change are,
according to Tufts University economists,
incalculable.
The report also reveals the comparatively
small amounts of money needed to keep
temperatures in check. Action to limit
temperature increases to two degrees could
avoid USD 12 trillion in annual damages at a
cost of only USD 3 trillion per year – a
quarter of the amount [2].
Global temperatures have already risen by
0.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels. If
emissions continue to rise unchecked global
temperatures could increase by more than 4
degrees centigrade by 2100. The report looks
at scientific and economic predictions on the
impact of climate change as temperature
rise:
TWO DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
Decreased crop yields in the developing
world will spell disaster for many poor
farmers and poor countries whose economies
are dependent on agriculture production.
Widespread drought and water shortages will
also to hit the developing world hardest
where millions of people are already living
without access to clean safe drinking water.
Other impacts include a near total loss of
coral reefs - of vital importance to
fisheries and the tourist industry; the
expanded northward spread of tropical
diseases such as malaria; and the potential
extinction of arctic species including the
polar bear.
THREE DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
Decreasing crop yields in developed
countries, will lead to decreasing world food
supplies. Disease will spread - for example
the incidence of diarrhea, a killer in the
developing world, is predicted to increase by
six per cent in Africa. The rise in
temperature will also lead to widespread
species extinctions; increasing
desertification; the wholesale collapse of
the Amazon ecosystem; and the complete loss
of all boreal and alpine ecosystems.
FOUR DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
Melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet
will gradually increase sea levels by five to
six metres putting vast tracks of land
underwater and producing millions of
environmental refugeesIn Bangladesh, where
half the population lives in areas less then
five metres above sea level, permanent
flooding and shortages of drinking water
could result in 30 – 40 million people being
displaced from their homes. Elsewhere entire
regions will have no agricultural production
whatsoever as a result of the changing
climate.
MORE THAN FOUR DEGREE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES
There is a 50 per cent chance that the
ocean’s circulation system will shut down,
removing the crucial currents that warm and
stabilize the climate of Northern Europe.
Dr Frank Ackerman, Director of the
Research and Policy Program at the Global
Development and the Environment Institute and
one of the authors of the report, said: “The
climate system has enormous momentum, as does
the economic system that emits so much carbon
dioxide. Like a supertanker, which has to
turn off its engines 25 km before it comes to
a stop, we have to start turning off
greenhouse gas emissions now in order to
avoid catastrophe in decades to come.”
Elizabeth Bast from Friends of the Earth
US said:
“This report demonstrates that climate
change will not only be an environmental and
social disaster: it will also be an economic
catastrophe, especially if global
temperatures are allowed to increase by more
than 2 degrees centigrade.”
FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT
In Washington, DC:
Elizabeth Bast, Friends of the Earth US,
+1 202 222 0716
In London, UK:
Catherine Pearce, Friends of the Earth
International Tel: +44-7811 283 641
(mobile)
Friends of the Earth Press Office in London,
UK, on +44-207 566 1649 or on +44-7764 364
187 (mobile)
NOTES TO EDITORS
[1] The report is available online at
http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/econ_costs_cc.pdf
[2] Based on a study by the German Institute
for Economic Research; estimates in US
dollars
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